JAXJaguars
6-8
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
17 mph
3
NYJJets
7-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
3
3
19
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
227
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.34
Passing Yards
218
161
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.36
Rushing Yards
147
66
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.13
-3.26
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-5.13
-3.97
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-2.18
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,468
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-65.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+37.6
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+37.6
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
14
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12
EPA
EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
22
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
1
RZ Efficiency
31
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jets
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U