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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ jets week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
6-8
19
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
17 mph
3
NYJJets
7-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
3
3
19
Jets
3
0
0
0
3

Spread

JAX logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
365
227
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
5.1
4.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.34
Passing Yards
218
161
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
4.9
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.36
Rushing Yards
147
66
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
19
10
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.13
-3.26
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-11
-21
Sack EPA
-5.13
-3.97
Penalties
3
9
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-2.18
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+55.6
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-65.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+37.6
Market Regression
+20.3
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+37.6
Value
Ptile
10/09
-2.4
33
10/16
3.4
78
10/23
1.9
68
10/30
-5.5
15
11/06
5.9
89
11/13
0.8
57
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.5
25
12/11
11.5
98
12/18
9.5
95
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
Value
Ptile
01/02
-1.1
45
01/09
-10.8
2
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24
10/30
-3.0
28
11/06
1.5
63
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
9
2
Yards / Game
7
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
7
5
EPA / Rush
14
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
30
31
Turnover EPA / Game
7
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
8
RZ Efficiency
17
3
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
29
14
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12

EPA

EPA / Play
29
17
EPA / Pass
26
20
EPA / Rush
22
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
17
18
Fumbles / Game
11
3
Turnover EPA / Game
11
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
1
RZ Efficiency
31
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-7
L
L
U
10/16
-7
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
L
U
10/30
-4
L
L
U
11/06
7
W
W
U
11/13
-10
L
P
U
11/27
1
W
W
O
12/04
-26
L
L
O
12/11
14
W
W
O
12/18
6
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
23
W
W
O
10/16
17
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
10/30
-5
L
L
U
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
21
W
W
O
12/04
-5
L
L
O
12/11
-8
L
W
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U