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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ lions week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-7
19
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
26
DETLions
5-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
6
10
0
19
Lions
0
3
1
10
14

Spread

DET logo
-5.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
285
277
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
263
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.13
Rushing Yards
83
14
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.1
0.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.78
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.35
-5.82
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-4.89
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
32
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-3.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+146
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+94.8
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
Value
Ptile
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32
10/23
-3.2
25
10/27
6.5
88
11/06
2.1
65
11/13
2.2
65
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
01/03
3.2
74
09/11
10.6
98
09/18
-3.0
27
09/25
6.1
87
10/02
-5.4
14
10/09
1.6
61
10/16
8.1
93
10/23
1.7
62
10/30
2.5
68
11/06
1.5
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Jaguars logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20

EPA

EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
25
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Lions logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
24
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
17
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U
10/23
-17
L
L
O
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/06
-5
L
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
4
W
W
U
09/11
4
W
W
O
09/18
-1
L
L
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
L
U
10/09
1
W
W
O
10/16
3
W
W
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-7
L
L
U
11/06
6
W
W
U