JAXJaguars
2-7
19
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
026
DETLions
5-4
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
6
10
0
19
Lions
0
3
1
10
14
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
277
Total Plays
62
57
Yards / Play
4.6
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.17
Passing Yards
--
263
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.13
Rushing Yards
83
14
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.1
0.7
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.78
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
14
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-7.35
-5.82
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-4.89
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
25
32
Penalty EPA
-5.26
-3.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+93.5
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.8
Away QB Adjustment
+14.1
Market Regression
-24.6
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.1
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
13
Yards / Game
22
18
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
20
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
25
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
27
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
25
15
RZ Efficiency
11
30
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
24
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
3
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
18
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
24
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
18
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
1
24
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U