JAXJaguars
2-8
6
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
052
DETLions
8-1
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
0
0
6
Lions
7
21
14
10
52
Spread
-13.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
170
645
Total Plays
47
76
Yards / Play
3.6
8.5
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.53
Passing Yards
129
--
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
27/33(82%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+1.11
Rushing Yards
41
196
Rush Attempts
17
43
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
38
Passing 1st downs
7
22
Rushing 1st downs
2
14
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.45
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-9
--
Sack EPA
-3.96
--
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
40
46
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-2.54
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+304
Home nfelo
1,686
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+56.2
Base HFA
+41.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+55.1
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
-65.3
Market Regression
+18.3
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-65.3
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
11
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
7
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
16
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
24
Interceptions / Game
22
7
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Lions Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
27
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
26
Rushing Yards / Game
3
24
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
6
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
25
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
2
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
17
RZ Efficiency
3
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U