JAXJaguars
1-1
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
6 mph
51
NEPatriots
2-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
7
17
Patriots
10
10
17
14
51
Spread
-14
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
471
Total Plays
55
76
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.46
Passing Yards
236
346
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
33/42(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.54
Rushing Yards
57
125
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
35
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.17
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-0.33
-2.65
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
114
30
Penalty EPA
-12.46
-4.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model89.1%
Spread Pick
Patriots-14.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+399
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
+11.1
Final Difference
365.3
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
6
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
4
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U