JAXJaguars
4-9
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
25°F
8 mph
27
NEPatriots
11-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
25°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
3
0
7
13
Patriots
7
6
0
14
27
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
296
Total Plays
61
68
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.08
Passing Yards
282
212
Comp/Att
21/40(53%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.21
Rushing Yards
72
84
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
43%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.35
-2.83
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-16
Sack EPA
-1.24
-1.55
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
60
55
Penalty EPA
-4.94
-5.97
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
16
3
EPA / Rush
12
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
25
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
19
22
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
25
7
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
16
Yards / Game
15
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
18
EPA / Pass
9
30
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
24
Interceptions / Game
5
15
Fumbles / Game
18
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
9-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U