JAXJaguars
2-13
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
46°F
4 mph
50
NEPatriots
9-6
TBD
Gillette Stadium
46°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
0
0
7
10
Patriots
7
21
13
9
50
Spread
-16
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
471
Total Plays
46
71
Yards / Play
5.5
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.41
Passing Yards
173
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
25/34(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.45
+0.66
Rushing Yards
80
181
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.03
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
32
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
2
16
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
80%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
10
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
6
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.99
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-3.02
--
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
25
30
Penalty EPA
-2.08
-3.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+364
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,287
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.7
Home QB Adjustment
-7.3
Away QB Adjustment
-17.0
Market Regression
+25.1
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.0
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
3
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
24
EPA
EPA / Play
29
5
EPA / Pass
27
5
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
26
2
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
9
4th Down Efficiency
10
16
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
28
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
8
22
EPA
EPA / Play
5
31
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
6
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
1
30
RZ Efficiency
7
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U