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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ ravens week 15, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-11
12
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
20
BALRavens
8-5
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
6
0
0
12
Ravens
1
3
7
3
14

Spread

JAX logo
+14

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
248
314
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
3.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.22
Passing Yards
166
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.06
Rushing Yards
82
93
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
28%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
+0.07
-4.89
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-63
--
Sack EPA
-10.42
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
60
70
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-7.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-15.0

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model88.6%
Spread Pick
BAL logo
Ravens-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.7%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+390
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,271
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
355.8
Model Spread
-15.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-4.9
21
10/12
0.6
53
10/19
-6.5
12
10/26
-4.4
23
11/02
1.1
58
11/09
-5.5
17
11/23
-8.0
8
11/30
-2.5
32
12/07
-6.4
13
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Value
Ptile
09/28
9.5
95
10/05
-6.0
15
10/12
10.6
97
10/19
-1.2
42
10/26
-6.7
12
11/02
0.4
51
11/09
-1.4
40
11/24
2.3
67
11/30
4.8
81
12/07
6.9
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Jaguars logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3

EPA

EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
16
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Ravens logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
13
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
14
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
-19
L
L
O
10/05
-8
L
L
U
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/02
-10
L
P
O
11/09
-14
L
L
O
11/23
-20
L
L
U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-14
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
28
W
W
O
10/05
-7
L
L
U
10/12
31
W
W
O
10/19
22
W
W
U
10/26
-3
L
L
O
11/02
-20
L
L
O
11/09
14
W
W
U
11/24
7
W
W
O
11/30
-1
L
L
O
12/07
15
W
W
U