JAXJaguars
2-11
12
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
20
BALRavens
8-5
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
47°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
6
6
0
0
12
Ravens
1
3
7
3
14
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
314
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
3.6
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.22
Passing Yards
166
--
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
20/30(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.06
Rushing Yards
82
93
Rush Attempts
23
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
28%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
+0.07
-4.89
Sacks
8
--
Sack Yards
-63
--
Sack EPA
-10.42
--
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
60
70
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-7.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-15.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model88.6%
Spread Pick
Ravens-14.0
Expected Value
+6.7%
Cover Probability
51.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+392
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,268
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.4
Home QB Adjustment
+25.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.4
Market Regression
+3.3
Final Difference
356.5
Model Spread
-15.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+25.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
31
13
Passing Yards / Game
21
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
3
EPA
EPA / Play
31
13
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
32
Interceptions / Game
26
21
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
11
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Ravens Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
12
26
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
22
EPA / Pass
6
22
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
1
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U