JAXJaguars
2-2
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph
9
PITSteelers
3-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
1
10
18
Steelers
3
3
3
0
9
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
313
371
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.30
Passing Yards
82
301
Comp/Att
8/14(57%)
33/55(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.36
Rushing Yards
231
70
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.94
-24.86
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-2.88
-3.20
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
19
37
Penalty EPA
+1.00
-2.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-15.1
Final Difference
192.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
19
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U