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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ steelers week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-2
30
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph
9
PITSteelers
3-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
73°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
1
10
18
Steelers
3
3
3
0
9

Spread

JAX logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
313
371
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
5.9
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.30
Passing Yards
82
301
Comp/Att
8/14(57%)
33/55(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.15
-0.36
Rushing Yards
231
70
Rush Attempts
37
20
Yards / Rush
6.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
5
16
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
5
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.94
-24.86
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-11
Sack EPA
-2.88
-3.20
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
19
37
Penalty EPA
+1.00
-2.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+217
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+58.0
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
-22.6
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
11/27
2.2
66
12/04
-3.6
23
12/11
-0.3
46
12/18
-8.9
4
12/24
3.1
73
01/01
3.0
72
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
12/11
-7.4
6
12/18
0.8
55
12/25
3.7
76
01/08
-2.3
31
01/15
-2.4
30
01/22
3.9
77
09/10
0.5
55
09/17
1.7
65
09/24
-2.3
36
10/01
-1.5
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jaguars logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
11
Yards / Game
9
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
13
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
17
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
6
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
20
22
Turnover EPA / Game
24
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
1
31
Steelers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Steelers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
5
3
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
6
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
19
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
24
2
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
13
24
RZ Efficiency
18
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-7
L
W
O
12/04
-10
L
L
U
12/11
-9
L
L
O
12/18
-1
L
W
O
12/24
21
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
W
U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
PIT logo

Steelers

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
4
W
W
U
12/25
4
W
L
O
01/01
3
W
L
O
01/08
18
W
W
U
01/15
2
W
W
U
01/22
-19
L
L
O
09/10
3
W
L
U
09/17
17
W
W
U
09/24
-6
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U