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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 1, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
-
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
37
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
7
7
21
Texans
14
13
7
3
37

Spread

HOU logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
395
449
Total Plays
68
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
319
289
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.43
Rushing Yards
76
160
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
21
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.56
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-13
-2
Sack EPA
-2.09
-0.92
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
82
50
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-8.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model57.5%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,380
Home Field
+32.3
Base HFA
+44.9
Divisional Adj
-20.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-95.2
Home QB Adjustment
-101.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
-52.6
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
No recent game data available
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-101.6
Value
Ptile
11/26
-0.3
49
12/03
-8.3
7
12/17
3.4
77
12/24
-5.1
19
12/31
-0.6
47
01/07
-6.3
15
09/09
-5.6
15
09/16
-0.4
43
09/20
-9.9
3
09/13
-5.0
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31

EPA

EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
21
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
30
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
27
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-10
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/15
-4
L
W
U
11/22
-24
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
W
O
12/06
-3
L
W
P
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/27
-24
L
L
O
01/03
-14
L
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/15
-3
L
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
O
01/03
-3
L
W
O