JAXJaguars
-
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
037
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
7
7
7
21
Texans
14
13
7
3
37
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
449
Total Plays
68
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.11
Passing Yards
319
289
Comp/Att
28/51(55%)
21/33(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.43
Rushing Yards
76
160
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
11
21
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.56
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-13
-2
Sack EPA
-2.09
-0.92
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
82
50
Penalty EPA
-11.67
-8.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model57.6%
Spread Pick
Texans+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,379
Home Field
+32.2
Base HFA
+44.8
Divisional Adj
-20.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
-95.2
Home QB Adjustment
-101.6
Away QB Adjustment
-6.5
Market Regression
-6.8
Final Difference
-52.9
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.5
No recent game data available
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-101.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
27
Yards / Game
27
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
22
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
26
EPA / Pass
27
26
EPA / Rush
21
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
26
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
28
20
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
28
Yards / Game
32
20
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
28
31
EPA / Rush
30
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
21
30
Fumbles / Game
13
32
Turnover EPA / Game
22
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
0-10
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U