JAXJaguars
7-3
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
021
HOUTexans
6-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
3
10
8
3
24
Texans
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
352
Total Plays
69
58
Yards / Play
6.5
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.02
Rushing Yards
81
91
Rush Attempts
30
18
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.1
EPA / Rush
-0.33
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
54%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.28
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-43
Sack EPA
--
-7.18
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
35
49
Penalty EPA
-5.12
-9.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model53.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,566
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
-8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+7.6
Market Regression
-0.1
Final Difference
-25.2
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.6
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
11
Yards / Game
12
15
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
23
8
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
28
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
15
Interceptions / Game
19
15
Fumbles / Game
31
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
18
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
15
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
11
11
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
31
17
RZ Efficiency
16
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U