JAXJaguars
8-7
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
034
HOUTexans
5-10
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
17
0
0
17
Texans
10
10
7
7
34
Spread
-4.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
322
497
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
5.2
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.31
Passing Yards
124
--
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.71
Rushing Yards
198
244
Rush Attempts
35
37
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
15
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
10%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-3.63
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
48
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-3.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model68.6%
Spread Pick
Texans-4.5
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,434
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+81.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-78.5
Market Regression
+71.8
Final Difference
135.8
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
T. Edwards
Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-78.5
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14
EPA
EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
3
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
4
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U