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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
8-7
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
34
HOUTexans
5-10
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
17
0
0
17
Texans
10
10
7
7
34

Spread

HOU logo
-4.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
322
497
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
5.2
8.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.31
Passing Yards
124
--
Comp/Att
12/25(48%)
18/22(82%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.51
+0.71
Rushing Yards
198
244
Rush Attempts
35
37
Yards / Rush
5.7
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.43
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
15
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
10%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.29
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-16
--
Sack EPA
-3.63
--
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
15
48
Penalty EPA
-1.46
-3.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+81.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-78.5
Market Regression
+71.7
Final Difference
136.3
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Edwards headshot

T. Edwards

Proj. Value
-3.0
Team Elo Adj
-78.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
-3.2
27
09/14
1.4
58
09/20
3.1
70
09/27
-6.2
14
10/04
-11.0
2
10/11
-3.6
27
10/18
-3.7
25
11/15
-2.9
31
09/12
-3.4
27
09/19
-8.9
5
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
10/17
6.8
90
11/01
-3.9
25
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
7.2
91
11/21
2.4
65
11/28
2.3
64
12/02
3.6
73
12/13
2.1
63
12/19
1.4
57
12/26
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
3
14

EPA

EPA / Play
9
32
EPA / Pass
21
32
EPA / Rush
3
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
21
Interceptions / Game
27
23
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
20
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
11
26
Yards / Game
3
27
Passing Yards / Game
13
16
Rushing Yards / Game
7
22

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
4
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
3
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
27
4th Down Efficiency
14
12
RZ Efficiency
5
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
10/31
18
W
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
O
11/21
4
W
W
O
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
O
12/19
-10
L
L
O
12/26
-3
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
4
W
L
O
11/01
-13
L
L
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/14
-7
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
W
O
11/28
20
W
W
U
12/02
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
O
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
L
U