JAXJaguars
3-12
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
023
HOUTexans
8-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
4
0
7
0
11
Texans
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
358
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.09
Passing Yards
112
235
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.20
Rushing Yards
121
123
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
8.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
0%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
--
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.77
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-15
Sack EPA
-6.19
-7.48
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-3.56
-7.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,304
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-88.6
Home QB Adjustment
-89.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-9.3
Final Difference
192.7
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9
EPA
EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
16
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
14
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U