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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ texans week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
3-12
17
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
23
HOUTexans
8-7
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
4
0
7
0
11
Texans
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

JAX logo
+8.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
233
358
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
4.4
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.09
Passing Yards
112
235
Comp/Att
15/34(44%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.35
-0.20
Rushing Yards
121
123
Rush Attempts
14
39
Yards / Rush
8.6
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.27
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
0%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
--
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-13.77
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-15
Sack EPA
-6.19
-7.48
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
55
Penalty EPA
-3.56
-7.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+130
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,303
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-88.6
Home QB Adjustment
-89.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.9
Market Regression
-9.3
Final Difference
192.6
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.9
Value
Ptile
10/12
0.6
53
10/19
-6.5
12
10/26
-4.4
23
11/02
1.1
58
11/09
-5.5
17
11/23
-8.0
8
11/30
-2.5
32
12/07
-6.4
13
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-89.5
Value
Ptile
10/20
-0.9
45
11/03
8.7
93
11/10
0.7
55
11/17
-5.1
19
11/24
-7.3
10
12/01
-0.3
48
12/05
-3.3
29
12/15
-11.3
2
12/21
-4.6
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Jaguars logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
31
16
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
2
EPA / Pass
32
2
EPA / Rush
16
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
27
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
7
RZ Efficiency
31
4
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Texans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
16
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
5
27

EPA

EPA / Play
19
22
EPA / Pass
17
22
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
1
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
16
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
23
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
15
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
18
W
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
U
11/02
-10
L
P
O
11/09
-14
L
L
O
11/23
-20
L
L
U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-14
L
L
U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U
11/30
24
W
W
O
12/07
14
W
W
U
12/14
-7
L
P
U
12/21
12
W
W
U