JAXJaguars
7-8
31
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
03
HOUTexans
2-12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
8
7
3
25
Texans
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
277
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
5.6
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.52
Passing Yards
168
193
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
25/44(57%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.60
Rushing Yards
169
84
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
5.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
13
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.66
-7.74
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-13
-18
Sack EPA
-2.25
-9.79
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-6.28
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,359
Away nfelo
1,447
Home Field
+30.0
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
-18.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-48.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
+39.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+39.3
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
7
30
Passing Yards / Game
29
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
12
EPA / Pass
7
13
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
18
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
30
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
14
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
17
19
Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
31
24
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
31
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
17
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
31
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
20
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
29
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U