JAXJaguars
6-5
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
11 mph
6
TENTitans
5-6
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
0
0
17
Titans
0
0
3
3
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
220
Total Plays
73
47
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.21
Passing Yards
119
163
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.24
Rushing Yards
258
57
Rush Attempts
53
14
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-6
Sack EPA
-2.24
-1.01
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
31
30
Penalty EPA
-4.72
-3.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.4
Home QB Adjustment
-30.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
K. Collins
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-30.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20
EPA
EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
28
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U