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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 13, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
6-5
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
11 mph
6
TENTitans
5-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
35°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
7
10
0
0
17
Titans
0
0
3
3
6

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
377
220
Total Plays
73
47
Yards / Play
5.2
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.21
Passing Yards
119
163
Comp/Att
14/19(74%)
14/32(44%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.24
Rushing Yards
258
57
Rush Attempts
53
14
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
23
11
Passing 1st downs
7
8
Rushing 1st downs
16
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
40%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-6
Sack EPA
-2.24
-1.01
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
31
30
Penalty EPA
-4.72
-3.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.4
Home QB Adjustment
-30.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
09/12
5.0
82
09/19
-7.8
7
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
2.5
66
10/18
-5.7
14
10/31
8.9
95
11/14
7.9
93
11/21
-5.7
14
11/28
-2.4
33
K. Collins headshot

K. Collins

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-30.1
Value
Ptile
12/28
-5.0
15
01/10
1.5
62
09/10
1.9
62
09/20
0.1
50
09/27
-7.8
8
10/04
2.3
65
10/11
-3.2
29
10/18
-10.2
2
10/24
-0.3
47
11/14
-5.2
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
15
Yards / Game
13
26
Passing Yards / Game
19
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
20

EPA

EPA / Play
9
21
EPA / Pass
21
22
EPA / Rush
3
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
26
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
7
RZ Efficiency
2
3
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
28
27
Passing Yards / Game
29
16
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
28
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
17
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
10
12
RZ Efficiency
10
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-25
L
L
O
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
10/31
18
W
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
O
11/21
4
W
W
O
11/28
-4
L
W
O
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
-8
L
L
U
09/26
19
W
W
U
10/03
-6
L
L
O
10/10
7
W
W
O
10/18
27
W
W
U
10/24
18
W
W
O
10/31
-8
L
L
O
11/14
-12
L
L
O
11/21
-3
L
L
U
11/28
-20
L
L
U