JAXJaguars
2-10
0
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
020
TENTitans
8-4
TBD
Nissan Stadium
45°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
0
0
Titans
7
3
7
3
20
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
192
263
Total Plays
51
69
Yards / Play
3.8
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.53
-0.05
Passing Yards
184
161
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.02
Rushing Yards
8
102
Rush Attempts
8
34
Yards / Rush
1.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.72
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
22
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
--
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.24
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-37
-30
Sack EPA
-6.16
-5.78
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
79
--
Penalty EPA
-12.81
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+233
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,309
Home Field
+24.9
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
+10.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
-43.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
6
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
1
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
21
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
28
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
20
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
16
31
EPA / Rush
10
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
22
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
27
32
Turnover EPA / Game
10
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
9
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
1-9
O/U
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U