JAXJaguars
2-10
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
9 mph
6
TENTitans
3-9
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
10
10
Titans
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
291
272
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
220
146
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.34
Rushing Yards
71
126
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.88
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
-0.51
-2.60
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-5.17
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model54.8%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,402
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+14.9
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
-18.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+39.0
Home QB Adjustment
-22.1
Away QB Adjustment
-61.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
33.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-61.1
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25
EPA
EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
16
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
30
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
24
20
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U