nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ titans week 14, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

JAX logo
JAXJaguars
2-10
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
9 mph
6
TENTitans
3-9
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
53°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
0
0
10
10
Titans
3
0
3
0
6

Spread

JAX logo
+3

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
291
272
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
5.0
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.11
Passing Yards
220
146
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
19/32(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
4.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
-0.34
Rushing Yards
71
126
Rush Attempts
26
28
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.88
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
-0.51
-2.60
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
39
--
Penalty EPA
-5.17
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model54.9%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-1
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,452
Home Field
+14.8
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
+39.2
Home QB Adjustment
-22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-61.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
33.9
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-61.1
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.2
13
10/08
-9.0
5
10/15
-5.0
20
10/22
8.7
95
10/29
-3.1
28
11/05
-2.7
31
11/12
-6.2
13
11/26
-9.5
4
11/10
-7.8
6
11/17
-5.8
13
W. Levis headshot

W. Levis

Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
12/31
-8.2
8
09/08
-6.5
10
09/15
-0.6
45
09/22
-5.4
14
09/30
-7.1
8
10/13
-4.5
20
11/10
-1.4
38
11/17
-4.2
21
11/24
-4.4
20
12/01
-3.3
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Titans Defense
Jaguars logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
30
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
26
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
25

EPA

EPA / Play
18
21
EPA / Pass
20
18
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
17
19
Turnover EPA / Game
23
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
13
24
Titans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Titans logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
27
27
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
30
32
EPA / Rush
29
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
30
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
26
4th Down Efficiency
30
17
RZ Efficiency
24
20

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/23
-37
L
L
O
09/29
-4
L
W
U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
16
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
W
O
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-16
L
L
O
09/30
19
W
W
O
10/13
-3
L
L
U
10/20
-24
L
L
O
10/27
-38
L
L
O
11/03
3
W
P
U
11/10
-10
L
L
O
11/17
-10
L
L
U
11/24
5
W
W
O
12/01
-23
L
L
O