JAXJaguars
-
23
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
026
MINVikings
-
TBD
Mall of America Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jaguars
3
6
3
11
0
23
Vikings
0
7
7
9
3
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
357
389
Total Plays
76
58
Yards / Play
4.7
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.07
Passing Yards
244
266
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
20/27(74%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.9
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.12
Rushing Yards
113
123
Rush Attempts
34
29
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
50%
20%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.20
-5.86
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-4
Sack EPA
+0.25
-6.53
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
--
47
Penalty EPA
--
-4.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,413
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+3.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.5
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-11.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jaguars Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
29
24
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
16
9
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
30
24
RZ Efficiency
27
29
Vikings Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
29
Yards / Game
20
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30
EPA
EPA / Play
14
27
EPA / Pass
22
26
EPA / Rush
4
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
2
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
21
16
Turnover EPA / Game
20
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
16
13
RZ Efficiency
17
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U