NYJJets
3-9
23
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
8 mph
17
SF49ers
1-11
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
0
3
3
11
6
23
49ers
14
3
0
0
0
17
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
364
Total Plays
82
55
Yards / Play
5.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.17
Passing Yards
216
116
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
15/26(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
-0.38
Rushing Yards
190
248
Rush Attempts
41
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
9.2
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
17
Passing 1st downs
11
5
Rushing 1st downs
13
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.58
--
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-41
-17
Sack EPA
-10.79
-3.35
Penalties
9
3
Penalty Yards
56
--
Penalty EPA
-5.58
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+67
Home nfelo
1,352
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+67.2
Home QB Adjustment
+9.4
Away QB Adjustment
-57.8
Market Regression
+39.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
B. Petty
Proj. Value
-5.1
Team Elo Adj
-57.8
Value
Ptile
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
32
Yards / Game
26
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
32
EPA
EPA / Play
30
29
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
9
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
32
28
49ers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
28
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
10
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
13
1
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
0-10
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-4
O/U