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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bengals week 8, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-3
9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
3 mph
49
CINBengals
5-2
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
3
0
9
Bengals
14
14
8
1
37

Spread

CIN logo
-6

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
240
402
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
3.7
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.38
Passing Yards
147
323
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.73
Rushing Yards
93
79
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.05
-4.15
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-2
Sack EPA
-6.88
-0.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
69
45
Penalty EPA
-7.22
-4.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.0
39
09/12
-12.1
2
09/22
4.7
83
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64
10/13
-7.2
10
10/20
-1.3
43
A. Dalton headshot

A. Dalton

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Value
Ptile
12/23
-7.6
7
12/30
-2.9
31
01/05
-6.6
11
09/08
3.5
74
09/16
3.7
75
09/22
-2.0
39
09/29
-4.7
20
10/06
-2.9
33
10/13
4.8
83
10/20
9.5
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Jets logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8

EPA

EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
18
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Bengals logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
20
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
1
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-4
L
L
U
12/23
-10
L
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
U
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/12
-3
L
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
3
W
W
U
12/30
6
W
W
U
01/05
-6
L
L
U
09/08
-3
L
P
O
09/16
10
W
W
U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
-11
L
L
U
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
3
W
L
O
10/20
3
W
W
O