NYJJets
4-3
9
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
3 mph
49
CINBengals
5-2
TBD
Paycor Stadium
57°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
3
0
9
Bengals
14
14
8
1
37
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
240
402
Total Plays
65
56
Yards / Play
3.7
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.27
+0.38
Passing Yards
147
323
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
19/30(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.73
Rushing Yards
93
79
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.28
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
40%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
NaN%
83%
Red Zone Conversions
--
5
Red Zone Attempts
--
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-17.05
-4.15
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-2
Sack EPA
-6.88
-0.77
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
69
45
Penalty EPA
-7.22
-4.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model70.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,559
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+19.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.0
Market Regression
-3.5
Final Difference
152.0
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+19.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
25
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
8
EPA
EPA / Play
29
3
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
18
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
5
15
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
2
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
9
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
27
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
14
16
EPA / Pass
14
25
EPA / Rush
20
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
24
32
Turnover EPA / Game
5
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
13
10
RZ Efficiency
1
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U