NYJJets
4-7
6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
15 mph
22
CINBengals
0-11
TBD
Paycor Stadium
46°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
0
6
Bengals
7
10
3
0
20
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
277
Total Plays
69
63
Yards / Play
3.9
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.00
Passing Yards
209
233
Comp/Att
28/48(58%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.05
Rushing Yards
62
44
Rush Attempts
17
25
Yards / Rush
3.6
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
41%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-10
Sack EPA
-8.31
-1.59
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
106
--
Penalty EPA
-10.79
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model51.4%
Spread Pick
Bengals+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+20
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-21.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+37.7
Market Regression
+20.2
Final Difference
-9.7
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+37.7
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
25
Yards / Game
32
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
31
32
EPA
EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
31
29
EPA / Rush
31
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
9
Interceptions / Game
23
21
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
9
EPA / Pass
29
19
EPA / Rush
22
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
2
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bengals
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U