NYJJets
-
17
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
15 mph
27
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
67°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Bills
14
7
0
6
27
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
254
404
Total Plays
53
81
Yards / Play
4.8
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
+0.04
Passing Yards
202
306
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
33/46(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.30
Rushing Yards
52
98
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
31
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
38%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
8
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-8.70
-8.59
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-13
-6
Sack EPA
-4.14
-3.71
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
95
79
Penalty EPA
-15.02
-7.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model62.2%
Spread Pick
Jets+6.0
Expected Value
+7.7%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,445
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
86.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
14
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
32
16
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
28
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
19
4th Down Efficiency
30
16
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
26
Yards / Game
5
24
Passing Yards / Game
6
15
Rushing Yards / Game
24
12
EPA
EPA / Play
4
24
EPA / Pass
3
29
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
9
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
5
RZ Efficiency
12
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
2-8
O/U