NYJJets
5-4
14
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
14 mph
37
BUFBills
3-7
TBD
New Era Field
62°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
7
7
14
Bills
0
20
8
3
31
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
313
Total Plays
56
67
Yards / Play
4.8
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.37
+0.04
Passing Yards
133
245
Comp/Att
12/29(41%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.78
+0.32
Rushing Yards
134
68
Rush Attempts
23
38
Yards / Rush
5.8
1.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
14
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
18%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
19
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-19.03
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
--
Sack EPA
-10.37
-0.44
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
24
64
Penalty EPA
-3.60
-3.92
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.2
Home QB Adjustment
-8.4
Away QB Adjustment
-4.2
Market Regression
-32.8
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
E. Manuel
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
20
Yards / Game
25
10
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
18
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
6
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
14
4th Down Efficiency
32
11
RZ Efficiency
26
6
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
19
11
Passing Yards / Game
29
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
31
25
EPA / Rush
9
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
6
Interceptions / Game
15
22
Fumbles / Game
22
32
Turnover EPA / Game
12
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
10
RZ Efficiency
29
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U