NYJJets
5-6
19
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
013
BUFBills
4-7
TBD
Rogers Centre
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
13
0
3
19
Bills
3
7
0
3
13
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
194
Total Plays
65
50
Yards / Play
5.1
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.28
Passing Yards
82
71
Comp/Att
8/17(47%)
9/23(39%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
3.1
EPA / Pass
-0.31
-0.66
Rushing Yards
249
123
Rush Attempts
43
24
Yards / Rush
5.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
5
5
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
31%
9%
3rd Down Conversions
5
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.17
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-36
-27
Sack EPA
-8.62
-7.50
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
18
--
Penalty EPA
-2.20
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-70
Home nfelo
1,407
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-27.0
Away QB Adjustment
-23.2
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-27.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
14
Yards / Game
20
19
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
31
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
4
Interceptions / Game
27
2
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
16
20
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
30
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
1
EPA / Pass
27
1
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
1
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U