NYJJets
3-9
27
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
23
BUFBills
4-8
TBD
New Era Field
31°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
10
0
14
27
Bills
14
3
3
3
23
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
368
Total Plays
52
71
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
192
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
18/37(49%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.18
Rushing Yards
75
176
Rush Attempts
27
31
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.14
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
24
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
75%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.89
-8.97
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-14
Sack EPA
--
-6.84
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
93
47
Penalty EPA
-10.17
-5.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model61.9%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.5
Expected Value
+3.2%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,297
Away nfelo
1,361
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+65.0
Home QB Adjustment
+50.7
Away QB Adjustment
-14.3
Market Regression
-4.7
Final Difference
84.1
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+50.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
19
Yards / Game
29
2
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
26
15
EPA
EPA / Play
29
4
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
29
7
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
30
30
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
29
Yards / Game
30
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
31
18
EPA / Pass
31
20
EPA / Rush
20
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
19
Interceptions / Game
31
16
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
31
25
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U