NYJJets
7-5
12
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
11 mph
20
BUFBills
9-3
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
7
3
10
Bills
0
7
10
3
20
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
232
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.13
Passing Yards
233
130
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.18
Rushing Yards
76
102
Rush Attempts
22
24
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
47%
15%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.83
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-36
-17
Sack EPA
-9.79
-4.95
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
61
--
Penalty EPA
-6.59
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+232
Home nfelo
1,664
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+22.1
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
-18.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.3
Home QB Adjustment
-2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-15.7
Market Regression
-8.1
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
M. White
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
4
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
26
12
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
17
Interceptions / Game
17
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
31
2
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
2
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
7
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
31
31
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
9
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U