NYJJets
6-9
9
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
18 mph
28
BUFBills
5-10
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
6
0
0
9
Bills
1
7
0
14
22
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
334
Total Plays
72
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.01
Passing Yards
199
--
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.33
Rushing Yards
133
109
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
41%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.90
-6.10
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-5.15
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-7.37
-2.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model57.3%
Spread Pick
Jets+3.5
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
51.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U