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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-9
9
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
18 mph
28
BUFBills
5-10
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
28°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
6
0
0
9
Bills
1
7
0
14
22

Spread

BUF logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
332
334
Total Plays
72
57
Yards / Play
4.6
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.01
Passing Yards
199
--
Comp/Att
17/35(49%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.33
Rushing Yards
133
109
Rush Attempts
36
31
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
41%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.90
-6.10
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-6
--
Sack EPA
-5.15
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
45
24
Penalty EPA
-7.37
-2.25

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model57.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+11.0%
Cover Probability
58.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,420
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-19.1
Market Regression
+6.8
Final Difference
50.5
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.1
Value
Ptile
10/08
-5.6
15
10/14
-2.0
36
10/21
-0.9
43
10/28
-4.1
24
11/11
-8.3
5
11/18
-1.9
37
11/22
1.3
59
12/02
-11.8
1
12/09
-4.0
24
12/17
-13.3
1
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
-3.2
28
10/21
5.5
84
11/04
-0.1
50
11/11
2.6
66
11/15
-3.1
29
11/25
-4.9
20
12/02
-0.4
47
12/09
-2.0
35
12/16
-4.6
21
12/23
-1.3
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
26
Yards / Game
30
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
28
EPA / Pass
30
15
EPA / Rush
15
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
23
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
28
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
25
31
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
21
20
Yards / Game
19
6
Passing Yards / Game
28
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
26

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
6
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
22
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
26
W
W
O
10/21
-3
L
W
O
10/28
-21
L
L
O
11/11
-21
L
L
U
11/18
14
W
W
O
11/22
-30
L
L
O
12/02
1
W
L
U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/17
-4
L
L
U
12/23
-10
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
3
W
W
U
10/21
-1
L
L
O
11/04
-12
L
L
U
11/11
-6
L
W
O
11/15
5
W
W
U
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
16
W
W
O
12/09
-3
L
L
U
12/16
-33
L
L
O
12/23
-14
L
L
U