NYJJets
6-9
13
TBD
New Era Field
43°F
7 mph
6
BUFBills
10-5
TBD
New Era Field
43°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
10
13
Bills
0
0
3
3
6
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
309
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.2
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.36
Passing Yards
185
236
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
21/40(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
5.9
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.31
Rushing Yards
86
73
Rush Attempts
27
20
Yards / Rush
3.2
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
17
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.94
-12.54
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-1.93
-3.66
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
13
40
Penalty EPA
-1.86
-4.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+3.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model40.9%
Spread Pick
Bills+1.0
Expected Value
+17.8%
Cover Probability
61.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+180
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,337
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.4
Market Regression
-41.1
Final Difference
64.2
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+30.4
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
11
EPA
EPA / Play
32
4
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
31
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
19
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
21
14
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
2
EPA
EPA / Play
20
9
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
10
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
15
18
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
23
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
20
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U