NYJJets
4-2
16
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
09
DENBroncos
2-4
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
6
16
Broncos
6
3
0
0
9
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
324
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
4.9
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.20
Passing Yards
105
219
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
-0.28
Rushing Yards
155
105
Rush Attempts
24
28
Yards / Rush
6.5
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
21
Passing 1st downs
5
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
21%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-5.80
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-6
Sack EPA
-4.26
-1.76
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
85
34
Penalty EPA
-10.47
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model51.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-117.8
Home QB Adjustment
-131.4
Away QB Adjustment
-13.6
Market Regression
+4.0
Final Difference
-10.2
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
B. Rypien
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-131.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
12
Yards / Game
25
8
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
25
10
EPA
EPA / Play
29
13
EPA / Pass
26
7
EPA / Rush
22
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
1
Interceptions / Game
17
11
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
30
RZ Efficiency
31
8
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
9
14
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
27
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
13
Interceptions / Game
22
19
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
14
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U