nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ broncos week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
5-4
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
54°F
3 mph
17
DENBroncos
4-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
54°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
3
13
Broncos
3
0
1
7
11

Spread

DEN logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
318
229
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
4.5
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.29
Passing Yards
235
104
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
9/21(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.28
Rushing Yards
83
125
Rush Attempts
28
34
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
13
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.93
-5.52
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.31
-0.42
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
+2.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model65.5%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-68
Home nfelo
1,423
Away nfelo
1,611
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+3.8
Final Difference
-111.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
01/23
3.9
75
09/11
0.4
55
09/18
0.3
54
09/25
4.0
76
10/02
-10.3
2
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65
10/23
1.2
61
11/06
0.3
54
11/13
-4.9
19
T. Tebow headshot

T. Tebow

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.5
80
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
2.3
64
10/23
-3.1
30
10/30
-7.2
9
11/06
6.5
88
11/13
0.8
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Jets logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23

EPA

EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
13
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Broncos logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
10
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
26
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/23
-5
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/18
29
W
W
U
09/25
-10
L
L
O
10/02
-17
L
L
O
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
O
11/06
16
W
W
U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-5
L
P
O
09/12
-3
L
L
O
09/18
2
W
L
O
09/25
-3
L
W
U
10/02
-26
L
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/23
3
W
W
U
10/30
-35
L
L
O
11/06
14
W
W
O
11/13
7
W
W
U