NYJJets
5-4
13
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
54°F
3 mph
17
DENBroncos
4-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
54°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
3
13
Broncos
3
0
1
7
11
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
229
Total Plays
71
56
Yards / Play
4.5
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.29
Passing Yards
235
104
Comp/Att
24/40(60%)
9/21(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.0
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.28
Rushing Yards
83
125
Rush Attempts
28
34
Yards / Rush
3.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
13
4
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
21%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.93
-5.52
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-3.31
-0.42
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
51
Penalty EPA
--
+2.11
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
Broncos+6.5
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+13.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
+2.0
Final Difference
-114.0
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
T. Tebow
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
26
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
18
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
25
24
EPA / Rush
13
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
23
27
Fumbles / Game
29
22
Turnover EPA / Game
2
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
4
19
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
19
Yards / Game
20
4
Passing Yards / Game
32
7
Rushing Yards / Game
1
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
27
4
EPA / Rush
10
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
13
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
32
2
Turnover EPA / Game
9
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
1
RZ Efficiency
26
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U