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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ browns week 5, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-2
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
67°F
8 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-4
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
67°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Browns
0
0
7
7
14

Spread

NYJ logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
212
419
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.13
Passing Yards
178
279
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.02
Rushing Yards
34
140
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.22
-14.24
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-2
Sack EPA
-4.53
-1.40
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
80
60
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-5.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model46.2%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+1.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.5%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+68
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+78.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
26.7
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
Value
Ptile
10/25
1.4
61
11/01
1.1
58
11/30
-0.9
45
09/18
-3.2
25
10/30
-1.0
40
11/27
-3.6
22
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-2.0
39
10/01
-7.6
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
23
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24

EPA

EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
22
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
24
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/27
-5
L
W
U
12/05
-31
L
L
O
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
O
12/24
-38
L
L
U
01/01
20
W
W
U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-15
L
L
U
11/27
-14
L
L
U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/18
-20
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U