NYJJets
2-2
17
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
67°F
8 mph
14
CLEBrowns
0-4
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
67°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Browns
0
0
7
7
14
Spread
-1.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
212
419
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
4.2
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.13
Passing Yards
178
279
Comp/Att
23/30(77%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.02
Rushing Yards
34
140
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
1.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.36
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.22
-14.24
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-16
-2
Sack EPA
-4.53
-1.40
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
80
60
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-5.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model46.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+64
Home nfelo
1,366
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.9
Home QB Adjustment
-17.4
Away QB Adjustment
-2.6
Market Regression
+2.5
Final Difference
24.7
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.6
D. Kizer
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
31
Yards / Game
28
13
Passing Yards / Game
22
31
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
27
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
23
18
Turnover EPA / Game
20
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
18
RZ Efficiency
10
32
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
24
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
22
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
32
18
Fumbles / Game
25
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
12
14
RZ Efficiency
24
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U