NYJJets
2-5
31
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph
28
CLEBrowns
0-7
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
53°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
14
10
31
Browns
10
10
0
8
28
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
409
Total Plays
71
71
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.07
Passing Yards
222
341
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
27/52(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.10
Rushing Yards
171
68
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
12
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
7
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
16
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.41
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-6
-6
Sack EPA
-1.59
-1.44
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
37
--
Penalty EPA
-4.27
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,368
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
+77.1
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.8
Home QB Adjustment
+17.6
Away QB Adjustment
-11.1
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
30
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
9
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
1
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
26
29
RZ Efficiency
32
29
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
28
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
16
12
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
27
23
EPA / Pass
27
30
EPA / Rush
23
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
16
29
Fumbles / Game
27
27
Turnover EPA / Game
16
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
19
4th Down Efficiency
5
1
RZ Efficiency
15
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Browns
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U