NYJJets
0-2
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph
29
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
15
21
Buccaneers
3
11
3
6
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
347
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.08
Passing Yards
168
225
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.29
Rushing Yards
99
122
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.70
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-7.34
-1.56
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
81
124
Penalty EPA
-8.64
-13.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-36.8
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-36.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
4
10
EPA
EPA / Play
23
13
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
20
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
6
3
Fumbles / Game
29
11
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
8
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
27
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
28
EPA / Pass
18
27
EPA / Rush
9
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
20
30
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
13
4th Down Efficiency
20
29
RZ Efficiency
25
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U