NYJJets
0-2
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph
29
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
15
21
Buccaneers
3
11
3
6
23
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
267
347
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.08
Passing Yards
168
225
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.29
Rushing Yards
99
122
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.70
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-7.34
-1.56
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
81
124
Penalty EPA
-8.64
-13.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-36.8
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-36.8
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
20
Yards / Game
21
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
5
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
23
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
2
24
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
14
9
RZ Efficiency
17
16
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
14
31
RZ Efficiency
29
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Buccaneers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U