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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ buccaneers week 3, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
0-2
27
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph
29
TBBuccaneers
2-0
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
15
21
Buccaneers
3
11
3
6
23

Spread

NYJ logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
267
347
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.08
Passing Yards
168
225
Comp/Att
26/36(72%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.29
Rushing Yards
99
122
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.70
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-29
-8
Sack EPA
-7.34
-1.56
Penalties
7
14
Penalty Yards
81
124
Penalty EPA
-8.64
-13.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+39.6
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
-36.8
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-36.8
Value
Ptile
09/19
1.6
65
11/07
-12.3
1
11/21
0.5
56
11/28
-5.9
15
12/05
-10.5
3
10/15
-0.2
47
10/22
1.4
59
10/29
-6.0
14
12/31
-0.7
45
01/07
3.8
75
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Value
Ptile
11/24
8.4
94
12/01
-6.5
10
12/08
-1.8
36
12/15
9.2
95
12/22
3.9
75
12/29
11.8
99
01/05
4.5
78
01/12
3.0
70
09/07
1.5
61
09/15
2.2
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
23
Yards / Game
28
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7

EPA

EPA / Play
27
16
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
24
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
21
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
31
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
22
23
Passing Yards / Game
11
15
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27

EPA

EPA / Play
22
30
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
9
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
2
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
21
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
23
W
W
U
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
15
W
W
U
12/15
23
W
W
O
12/22
-2
L
L
O
12/29
34
W
W
O
01/05
8
W
L
O
01/12
-3
L
L
U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/15
1
W
W
U