NYJJets
1-4
3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
028
ARICardinals
2-3
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
0
3
Cardinals
7
7
7
7
28
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
230
396
Total Plays
52
70
Yards / Play
4.4
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.29
+0.17
Passing Yards
197
--
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.25
Rushing Yards
33
171
Rush Attempts
14
35
Yards / Rush
2.4
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
28
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
15%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.19
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-2.52
--
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
83
64
Penalty EPA
-9.71
-4.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+97.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
-12.6
Market Regression
-14.3
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-12.6
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
26
2
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
11
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
31
3
EPA / Rush
9
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
7
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
13
RZ Efficiency
32
17
Cardinals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
28
Yards / Game
8
11
Passing Yards / Game
5
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
20
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
16
Interceptions / Game
26
29
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
19
4th Down Efficiency
14
1
RZ Efficiency
5
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U