NYJJets
3-6
6
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
031
ARICardinals
5-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
0
0
6
Cardinals
14
10
7
0
31
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
207
406
Total Plays
55
57
Yards / Play
3.8
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.39
Passing Yards
128
259
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
22/24(92%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
10.8
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.75
Rushing Yards
79
147
Rush Attempts
17
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
28
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
7
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.69
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-7
Sack EPA
-7.72
-1.51
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
25
58
Penalty EPA
-2.60
-5.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model50.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+71.7
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+15.0
Net QB Adjustment
+10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+19.8
Away QB Adjustment
+9.0
Market Regression
-15.9
Final Difference
-0.6
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+9.0
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
16
Yards / Game
24
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
8
Rushing Yards / Game
31
20
EPA
EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
21
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Cardinals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
19
Yards / Game
11
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
17
EPA
EPA / Play
8
24
EPA / Pass
11
19
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
17
Interceptions / Game
11
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
14
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
17
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Cardinals
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U