NYJJets
1-3
0
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
91°F
8 mph
31
LACChargers
3-1
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
91°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Chargers
7
14
7
3
31
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
151
439
Total Plays
54
71
Yards / Play
2.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.13
Passing Yards
60
277
Comp/Att
12/31(39%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.70
+0.49
Rushing Yards
91
162
Rush Attempts
21
40
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.27
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
4
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
8%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
1
12
3rd Down Attempts
12
18
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.40
-5.13
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-4.57
-3.17
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
94
76
Penalty EPA
-11.21
-8.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model78.0%
Spread Pick
Chargers-7.0
Expected Value
+12.4%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+260
Home nfelo
1,583
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+25.1
Home QB Adjustment
+25.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
220.0
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.0
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
23
1
Rushing Yards / Game
3
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
10
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
17
28
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
7
3
RZ Efficiency
32
14
Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
24
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
8
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
5
EPA
EPA / Play
12
26
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
27
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
8
Interceptions / Game
26
30
Fumbles / Game
2
21
Turnover EPA / Game
23
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
30
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
15
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U