NYJJets
1-0
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
07
INDColts
0-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
10
20
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
343
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.30
Passing Yards
243
--
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.12
Rushing Yards
101
93
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-20.47
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.03
--
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
90
84
Penalty EPA
-0.36
-11.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
134.3
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
15
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
20
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U