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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ colts week 2, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-0
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
7
INDColts
0-1
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
10
20
Colts
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

NYJ logo
+6

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
344
343
Total Plays
62
61
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.30
Passing Yards
243
--
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.12
Rushing Yards
101
93
Rush Attempts
27
24
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.75
-20.47
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-1.03
--
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
90
84
Penalty EPA
-0.36
-11.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+105
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.0
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-5.6
Final Difference
134.0
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
-4.5
23
10/09
-2.9
30
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31
11/30
15.5
100
12/07
-0.9
44
12/14
-4.4
24
09/13
0.1
51
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
11/23
0.3
51
11/30
10.0
96
12/07
-0.6
46
12/14
-2.6
31
12/21
-6.8
12
12/28
0.6
54
01/04
8.1
91
01/11
2.5
68
01/18
-9.3
5
09/13
-1.7
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Jets logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
9
18
EPA / Rush
15
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
15
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
3
26
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Colts logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
23
7
Yards / Game
28
4
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2

EPA

EPA / Play
27
4
EPA / Pass
25
9
EPA / Rush
32
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
20
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/02
-14
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
U
11/24
-35
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
12/28
13
W
W
O
09/13
21
W
W
O
IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
20
W
W
U
11/30
22
W
W
O
12/07
1
W
L
U
12/14
7
W
P
U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
01/11
11
W
W
U
01/18
-38
L
L
P
09/13
-13
L
L
U