NYJJets
2-5
30
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
045
INDColts
3-5
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
6
14
30
Colts
7
21
14
3
45
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
486
532
Total Plays
76
61
Yards / Play
6.4
8.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.45
Passing Yards
398
272
Comp/Att
34/52(65%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.53
Rushing Yards
88
260
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
4.0
8.7
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
28
Passing 1st downs
25
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.39
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
--
Sack EPA
-3.03
-0.86
Penalties
7
2
Penalty Yards
43
--
Penalty EPA
-4.67
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+261
Home nfelo
1,539
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+40.6
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.7
Home QB Adjustment
+0.1
Away QB Adjustment
-26.6
Market Regression
-12.0
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. White
Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-26.6
Value
Ptile
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
11
Yards / Game
26
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
21
Rushing Yards / Game
25
12
EPA
EPA / Play
25
12
EPA / Pass
29
21
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
29
3
Fumbles / Game
7
1
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
18
RZ Efficiency
20
26
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
32
Yards / Game
16
32
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
29
EPA
EPA / Play
8
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
4
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
27
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U