NYJJets
2-1
27
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
5 mph
14
MIADolphins
1-2
TBD
Wembley Stadium
59°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
10
10
7
0
27
Dolphins
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
226
Total Plays
72
58
Yards / Play
5.9
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
167
Comp/Att
16/29(55%)
19/44(43%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.8
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.47
Rushing Yards
207
59
Rush Attempts
43
11
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
13
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
5
3rd Down %
38%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.24
-6.15
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-31
Sack EPA
--
-4.96
Penalties
14
9
Penalty Yards
163
80
Penalty EPA
-17.58
-11.51
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-32
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
-6.4
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
-38.8
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
10
28
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
7
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
15
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
5
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
7
Yards / Game
27
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
4
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
11
5
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
23
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
28
21
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U