NYJJets
3-5
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
14 mph
27
MIADolphins
3-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
10
3
0
10
23
Dolphins
7
7
6
7
27
Spread
4
P
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
331
274
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
6.2
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
191
137
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
140
137
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
6.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
30%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
20%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-12
Sack EPA
-4.39
-1.99
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
77
85
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-8.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.0
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+24
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+67.8
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.8
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
+9.0
Final Difference
74.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
19
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U