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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 9, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-5
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
14 mph
27
MIADolphins
3-4
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
10
3
0
10
23
Dolphins
7
7
6
7
27

Spread

NYJ logo
MIA logo
4
P

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
331
274
Total Plays
53
62
Yards / Play
6.2
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.05
Passing Yards
191
137
Comp/Att
18/29(62%)
17/29(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
140
137
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
6.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.20
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
4
3rd Down %
30%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
20%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.40
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-12
Sack EPA
-4.39
-1.99
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
77
85
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-8.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model60.5%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+4.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.3%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+69.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
+16.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.8
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
+8.5
Final Difference
73.9
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
12/19
0.4
53
12/27
7.7
93
01/03
-7.6
5
09/11
-0.8
42
09/15
7.2
90
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-7.1
8
10/09
0.4
52
10/17
-4.1
19
10/30
-3.7
22
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
12/20
-2.5
33
12/27
-1.9
36
01/03
7.7
93
09/11
-3.7
22
09/18
7.9
92
09/25
2.5
68
09/29
-6.7
9
10/09
-10.8
2
10/16
2.6
69
10/23
1.3
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
30
19
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
15
11
Rushing Yards / Game
11
31

EPA

EPA / Play
30
19
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
9
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
21
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
16
11
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
6
4th Down Efficiency
26
20
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
25
11
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13

EPA

EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
19
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
20
29
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
13
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
14
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
6
W
W
O
01/03
-5
L
L
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
O
09/25
-21
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
-18
L
L
U
10/17
-25
L
L
U
10/23
8
W
W
U
10/30
3
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-16
L
L
U
12/27
-6
L
L
U
01/03
10
W
W
U
09/11
-2
L
W
U
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
6
W
L
O
09/29
-15
L
L
U
10/09
-13
L
L
O
10/16
15
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O