NYJJets
3-10
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
9 mph
31
MIADolphins
6-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
10
7
0
1
18
Dolphins
0
10
7
14
31
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
228
379
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.05
Passing Yards
126
196
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.52
-0.07
Rushing Yards
102
183
Rush Attempts
24
42
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
27%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.88
-16.06
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-44
--
Sack EPA
-13.10
-0.89
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
32
45
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-4.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+247
Home nfelo
1,477
Away nfelo
1,314
Home Field
+31.0
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
+10.7
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+53.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.7
Away QB Adjustment
-32.8
Market Regression
+19.4
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-32.8
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+20.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
15
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
18
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13
EPA
EPA / Play
25
11
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
13
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
12
Interceptions / Game
29
14
Fumbles / Game
7
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
23
23
RZ Efficiency
20
7
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
32
Yards / Game
25
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
29
29
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
4
Interceptions / Game
14
30
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
15
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U