NYJJets
5-8
0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph
30
MIADolphins
9-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
76°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
0
0
Dolphins
7
17
3
3
30
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
103
290
Total Plays
55
57
Yards / Play
1.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.59
+0.05
Passing Yards
80
213
Comp/Att
18/37(49%)
23/26(88%)
Yards / Pass
2.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.63
+0.28
Rushing Yards
23
77
Rush Attempts
12
28
Yards / Rush
1.9
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.66
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.09
--
Sacks
6
3
Sack Yards
-56
-15
Sack EPA
-15.53
-4.66
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
55
65
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-7.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model80.1%
Spread Pick
Dolphins-7.0
Expected Value
+28.9%
Cover Probability
64.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+306
Home nfelo
1,661
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+59.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.2
Away QB Adjustment
-47.0
Market Regression
-76.2
Final Difference
242.1
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-47.0
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
22
EPA / Pass
32
13
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
29
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
20
4th Down Efficiency
8
13
RZ Efficiency
32
26
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
10
Yards / Game
3
2
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
7
25
EPA
EPA / Play
4
4
EPA / Pass
4
3
EPA / Rush
9
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
4
Interceptions / Game
24
5
Fumbles / Game
20
13
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
12
4th Down Efficiency
24
5
RZ Efficiency
3
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U