NYJJets
2-2
30
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
028
ATLFalcons
1-3
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
14
3
10
30
Falcons
0
7
7
14
28
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
363
Total Plays
46
69
Yards / Play
6.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.21
+0.05
Passing Yards
170
307
Comp/Att
16/20(80%)
37/45(82%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.48
+0.29
Rushing Yards
118
64
Rush Attempts
22
22
Yards / Rush
5.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
10
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
55%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.78
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-29
-12
Sack EPA
-7.08
-7.76
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
24
--
Penalty EPA
-6.42
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
Jets+10.0
Expected Value
+8.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+18.2
Away QB Adjustment
+2.7
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
207.5
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+18.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
27
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
31
EPA
EPA / Play
29
32
EPA / Pass
30
30
EPA / Rush
18
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
6
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
32
4th Down Efficiency
32
27
RZ Efficiency
26
20
Falcons Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
23
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
6
Interceptions / Game
19
22
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
19
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
10
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U