NYJJets
1-5
15
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
11 mph
29
JAXJaguars
3-4
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
0
8
15
Jaguars
13
6
3
7
29
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
389
Total Plays
53
70
Yards / Play
4.1
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.01
Passing Yards
169
278
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.36
Rushing Yards
46
111
Rush Attempts
14
34
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
21
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
22%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.41
-4.00
Sacks
8
2
Sack Yards
-51
-1
Sack EPA
-10.24
-4.59
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
83
70
Penalty EPA
-14.40
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,343
Home Field
+70.1
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-90.9
Home QB Adjustment
-67.1
Away QB Adjustment
+23.8
Market Regression
+36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-67.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
21
Yards / Game
32
25
Passing Yards / Game
19
12
Rushing Yards / Game
31
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
31
23
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
15
Interceptions / Game
23
25
Fumbles / Game
18
25
Turnover EPA / Game
16
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
23
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
20
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
2
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
30
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
15
4th Down Efficiency
15
2
RZ Efficiency
31
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U