NYJJets
5-7
17
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
10 mph
10
JAXJaguars
2-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
67°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
10
7
17
Jaguars
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
291
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.4
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.16
Passing Yards
104
168
Comp/Att
12/19(63%)
21/43(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.29
Rushing Yards
166
123
Rush Attempts
42
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.10
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
4
10
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
31%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-7.75
-6.80
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-17
Sack EPA
-4.37
-4.28
Penalties
1
7
Penalty Yards
--
54
Penalty EPA
--
-5.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model53.1%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+8.4%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,437
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+45.0
Home QB Adjustment
+23.8
Away QB Adjustment
-21.1
Market Regression
-12.3
Final Difference
-21.7
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-21.1
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
29
Yards / Game
30
30
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
30
EPA
EPA / Play
30
27
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
2
Interceptions / Game
28
20
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
25
15
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
12
1
Rushing Yards / Game
30
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
11
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
10
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
12
4th Down Efficiency
30
31
RZ Efficiency
27
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U