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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ jaguars week 15, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-10
32
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0
25
JAXJaguars
3-10
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
10
15
32
Jaguars
7
6
3
9
25

Spread

NYJ logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
402
421
Total Plays
55
78
Yards / Play
7.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.17
Passing Yards
277
285
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.10
Rushing Yards
125
136
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.20
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-1.64
-3.05
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
62
106
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-10.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
JAX logo
Jaguars+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+53.3
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-60.1
Home QB Adjustment
-60.5
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-78.7
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
Value
Ptile
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-7.3
7
10/14
1.6
60
10/20
-1.6
37
10/27
2.3
65
10/31
3.1
71
11/10
-5.9
12
11/17
-0.1
48
12/01
-3.0
28
12/08
3.0
69
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-60.5
Value
Ptile
10/08
-9.0
5
10/15
-5.0
20
10/22
8.7
95
10/29
-3.1
28
11/05
-2.7
31
11/12
-6.2
13
11/26
-9.5
4
11/10
-7.8
6
11/17
-5.8
13
12/08
-4.0
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
21
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
10
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17

EPA

EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
16
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
13
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-1
L
L
U
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-4
L
W
U
10/06
3
W
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
16
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
W
O
11/03
-5
L
W
O
11/10
-5
L
W
U
11/17
-46
L
L
O
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/08
4
W
W
U