NYJJets
3-10
32
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
025
JAXJaguars
3-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
0
10
15
32
Jaguars
7
6
3
9
25
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
421
Total Plays
55
78
Yards / Play
7.3
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.41
+0.17
Passing Yards
277
285
Comp/Att
16/31(52%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
8.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.10
Rushing Yards
125
136
Rush Attempts
23
29
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.33
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
27
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
40%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.20
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-14
-9
Sack EPA
-1.64
-3.05
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
62
106
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-10.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+53.6
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-60.1
Home QB Adjustment
-60.6
Away QB Adjustment
-0.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-78.2
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-60.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
27
Yards / Game
24
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
21
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
25
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
10
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
21
20
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
25
5
Passing Yards / Game
26
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
18
24
EPA / Pass
20
19
EPA / Rush
16
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
17
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
17
7
Turnover EPA / Game
23
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
30
RZ Efficiency
13
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U