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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ jaguars week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-10
20
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
11 mph
48
JAXJaguars
9-4
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
3
7
20
Jaguars
14
17
10
7
48

Spread

JAX logo
-13.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
284
438
Total Plays
68
59
Yards / Play
4.2
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.42
Passing Yards
154
--
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.24
+0.74
Rushing Yards
130
108
Rush Attempts
32
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
11
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
53%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-11.60
-5.50
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-5.14
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
44
60
Penalty EPA
-2.98
-7.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+301
Home nfelo
1,517
Away nfelo
1,343
Home Field
+59.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+67.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-70.0
Market Regression
+28.9
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5

Quarterbacks

B. Cook headshot

B. Cook

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-70.0
No recent game data available
W. Lawrence headshot

W. Lawrence

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.9
Value
Ptile
09/28
0.5
55
10/06
5.0
84
10/12
-2.6
32
10/19
-6.0
13
11/02
1.7
63
11/09
-4.7
19
11/16
0.8
57
11/23
-2.9
30
11/30
0.1
53
12/07
3.1
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Jets logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
28
9
Yards / Game
28
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
23
Rushing Yards / Game
7
1

EPA

EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
24
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
23
2
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
4
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Jaguars Offense vs Jets Defense
Jaguars logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
9
30
Yards / Game
14
23
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27

EPA

EPA / Play
13
30
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
14
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
2
Interceptions / Game
21
32
Fumbles / Game
6
29
Turnover EPA / Game
13
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
11
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-6
L
L
O
10/05
-15
L
L
O
10/12
-2
L
W
U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/23
-13
L
W
U
11/30
3
W
W
O
12/07
-24
L
L
O
JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
5
W
W
O
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/12
-8
L
L
U
10/19
-28
L
L
U
11/02
1
W
L
O
11/09
-7
L
L
O
11/16
29
W
W
U
11/23
3
W
W
O
11/30
22
W
W
U
12/07
17
W
W
O