NYJJets
6-7
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
11 mph
30
CARPanthers
9-4
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
7
7
20
Panthers
3
13
0
8
24
Spread
10
P
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
392
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
140
261
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.9
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.45
Rushing Yards
157
131
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.66
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-27
-12
Sack EPA
-5.71
-2.20
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
+0.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
Panthers-10.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+302
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
-1.3
Final Difference
267.3
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3
EPA
EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
5
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
26
3
Panthers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
5
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
15
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U