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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ panthers week 15, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-7
20
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
11 mph
30
CARPanthers
9-4
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
3
7
7
20
Panthers
3
13
0
8
24

Spread

NYJ logo
CAR logo
10
P

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
297
392
Total Plays
60
62
Yards / Play
5.0
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.17
Passing Yards
140
261
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
16/24(67%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
10.9
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.45
Rushing Yards
157
131
Rush Attempts
28
36
Yards / Rush
5.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
53%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.66
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-27
-12
Sack EPA
-5.71
-2.20
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
59
Penalty EPA
--
+0.48

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model82.2%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.2
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
-2.3
Final Difference
265.5
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64
10/13
-7.2
10
10/20
-1.3
43
10/27
-6.6
13
11/03
-3.4
28
11/17
-15.3
0
11/24
-10.7
3
12/01
-8.0
7
12/08
3.7
75
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
10/06
-9.8
3
10/13
8.8
93
10/20
2.1
65
10/24
5.3
84
11/03
0.3
52
11/10
-7.5
10
11/18
6.8
89
11/24
-0.5
47
12/01
6.9
90
12/08
-1.4
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Panthers Defense
Jets logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
2
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
3

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
30
5
EPA / Rush
18
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
28
8
Fumbles / Game
5
9
Turnover EPA / Game
6
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
1
RZ Efficiency
26
3
Panthers Offense vs Jets Defense
Panthers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
19
19
Yards / Game
26
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
27
Rushing Yards / Game
12
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
15
25
EPA / Rush
5
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
6
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
1
32
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
2
10
RZ Efficiency
15
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
-40
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-23
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-20
L
L
U
12/08
10
W
W
O
CAR logo

Panthers

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-16
L
L
U
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
15
W
W
O
10/24
18
W
W
O
11/03
24
W
W
U
11/10
1
W
W
U
11/18
4
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
21
W
W
U
12/08
-18
L
L
U