NYJJets
1-0
10
TBD
Gillette Stadium
72°F
8 mph
13
NEPatriots
1-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
72°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
7
0
10
Patriots
10
3
0
0
13
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
232
Total Plays
71
64
Yards / Play
4.5
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.30
Passing Yards
189
178
Comp/Att
15/35(43%)
19/39(49%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.19
Rushing Yards
129
54
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.51
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
9
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
33%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
18
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.74
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-7
Sack EPA
-4.16
-1.47
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
42
30
Penalty EPA
-7.74
-4.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+247
Home nfelo
1,656
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
-10.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U