NYJJets
4-1
23
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
9 mph
30
NEPatriots
5-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
58°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
7
7
6
23
Patriots
3
10
3
14
30
Spread
7
P
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
353
Total Plays
70
66
Yards / Play
5.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.20
Passing Yards
283
337
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
34/54(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.14
Rushing Yards
89
16
Rush Attempts
29
9
Yards / Rush
3.1
1.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
20
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
50%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-18
Sack EPA
-4.16
-4.52
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
29
38
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-4.72
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,676
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.6
Away QB Adjustment
+20.2
Market Regression
-64.4
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+20.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
28
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
17
10
EPA / Pass
9
12
EPA / Rush
15
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
14
Interceptions / Game
22
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
3
14
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
7
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
1
4
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
31
Interceptions / Game
2
5
Fumbles / Game
2
12
Turnover EPA / Game
31
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
3
4th Down Efficiency
7
21
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U