NYJJets
1-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
054
NEPatriots
2-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
52°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
6
0
13
Patriots
14
17
3
20
54
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
551
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
4.8
7.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.49
Passing Yards
237
403
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.63
Rushing Yards
62
148
Rush Attempts
18
32
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
32
Passing 1st downs
13
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
54%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.69
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-8
Sack EPA
-2.42
-2.55
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
29
95
Penalty EPA
-6.71
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+161
Home nfelo
1,503
Away nfelo
1,354
Home Field
-9.4
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
-18.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+20.6
Home QB Adjustment
-7.1
Away QB Adjustment
-27.6
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
3
Yards / Game
26
7
Passing Yards / Game
13
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
5
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
13
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
30
Interceptions / Game
29
2
Fumbles / Game
7
16
Turnover EPA / Game
9
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
9
4th Down Efficiency
23
16
RZ Efficiency
20
8
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
15
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
16
Rushing Yards / Game
8
29
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
9
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
17
18
Turnover EPA / Game
6
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
7
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Patriots
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-6-1
O/U